Electric vehicles, however, might do the job. Download the microdata behind this poll.Contrary to the popular refrain, video never really did kill the radio star.Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.09.About 6 percent of the voters in our poll said that they would vote for a third-party candidate.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. ![]() Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. ![]() New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County Here are other common ways to weight a poll: In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.Įven after weighting, our poll does not have as many of some types of people as we would like. Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.īased on administrative records. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. The types of people we reachedĮven if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results. Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else He vows he will be a check on the president that he says Mr. Crow has called for "a new generation of leadership" and said he would not support Nancy Pelosi for speaker. He trailed in our prior poll here, and the race is now widely considered to “lean Democratic,” making it one of the top 15 or so Democratic pickup opportunities in the country.
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